Daily Macro. No Noise. Just Structure
Beneath the surface tension we explored in Part 1 lies something equally important: the stories the market tells itself. Right now, several powerful narratives are keeping confidence alive. They’re persuasive, widely believed, and backed by real money. But they’re also increasingly at odds with the tightening structure beneath them. 1. “AI Will Drive the Next […]
**Part 1** There’s a quiet tension building beneath the surface of the markets these days. It doesn’t scream from every headline, but if you sit with the data long enough, the pattern becomes unmistakable: the system is tightening. 1. Energy Is Reclaiming Control At the heart of it all is energy. Disruptions in the Strait
The System Is Tightening: How Energy and AI Are Testing a Fragile Market Read More »
Markets love to put on a brave face. This past week they did exactly that: equities climbing higher, a “risk-on” vibe in the air, whispers of progress in the Strait of Hormuz. On the surface, everything looked… fine. But zoom out. What you’re actually watching isn’t conviction. It’s relief. And relief is a dangerously thin
Everything Is Fine… Until It Isn’t Read More »
In today’s interconnected markets, everything is linked. A single move in oil prices can set off a precise chain reaction that flows through inflation, bond yields, liquidity conditions, and finally into risk assets like stocks and growth equities. Think of it as a domino effect. When the first piece (oil) falls, everything else follows with
The Oil Domino: How One Commodity Move Can Reshape the Entire Market Cycle Read More »
Persia remembers what modern empires and rogue states forget: The West sees Iran. Iran sees Persia. Markets are beginning to feel the difference. Empires often assume they are dealing with a country. They are not. They are dealing with a civilization. Persia is layered, patient, and historically accustomed to absorbing outsiders rather than collapsing under
Civilizations Endure; Metrics Don’t: Lessons from Persia Read More »
What is the VIX and why is it relevant to investors? The Volatility Index, known as the VIX or FEAR index, helps measure how much the stock market might swing in the future. It looks at options prices on the S&P 500, hinting at how investors feel and what they expect in the market. 1.
Making Sense of The VIX Read More »
“To be left alone is the most precious thing one can ask of the modern world.” – ― Anthony Burgess “If privacy is outlawed, only outlaws will have privacy”. – Phil Zimmerman Privacy is an undervalued theme in the cryptocurrency arena and it is often overlooked by users and investors alike. Many people mistakenly believe that
Privacy – The most Undervalued Theme in Crypto Read More »
This Week in Trading. The bounce in the markets we expected last week arrived. We closed out the short positions we established on 04 April, 2022. We closed SQQQ for a gain of +68%, TZA +45%, and SPXS +38%. We noted that we were about to pass through a significant storm in the markets at
The 17th Week of Trading 2022. Holding short positions, especially leveraged short positions, is like holding a tiger by the tail. Great fun until you get savaged. We’ve been short with leverage of all the major indices in the United States since April 4th, 2022. Despite our warning last week to rig for stormy weather,